New Delhi, March 6 || India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth would be steady at 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2026, despite uncertainties stemming from geopolitical turns and trade-related issues led by US tariff actions, a Crisil report said on Thursday.
The forecast is based on two assumptions. These include another spell of normal monsoon and commodity prices continuing to remain soft.
Cooling food inflation, the tax benefits announced in the Union Budget 2025-2026, and lower borrowing costs are expected to drive discretionary consumption, the report mentioned.
Growth is now returning to pre-pandemic rates as fiscal impulse normalises and the high-base effect wears off.
Even with that, the high frequency Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data reveals that India maintains its pole position among major economies.
"India’s resilience is being tested again. Over the past few years, we have built a few safe harbours against exogenous shocks - healthy economic growth, low current account deficit and external public debt, and adequate forex reserves - which provide ample policy latitude," Crisil Managing Director and CEO, Amish Mehta, said.
So, while the waters can turn choppy, consumption-led rural and urban demand will be crucial to short-term growth.