New Delhi, April 24 || The US may be on the brink of a major measles resurgence as vaccination rates continue to fall across several states, according to a new study.
A team of US-based researchers from the universities of Stanford, Baylor, Rice, and Texas used a simulation model to assess the importation and dynamic spread of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases across 50 states in the country, news agency reported.
The model evaluated scenarios with different vaccination rates over 25 years.
At current vaccination levels, the model projects that measles could regain endemic status in the US, potentially resulting in approximately 851,300 cases over the next 25 years, according to the study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
If vaccination rates were to decline by 10 per cent, the study estimates the country could see 11.1 million measles cases over the same period.
A more severe drop of 50 per cent could lead to 51.2 million measles cases, alongside 9.9 million rubella cases, 4.3 million cases of poliomyelitis, 197 diphtheria cases, 10.3 million hospitalisations, and 159,200 deaths.
The study comes amid declining vaccination rates in the US, which began at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic because of many factors, which include policy (for example, increased use of personal belief exemptions to childhood vaccine schedules), misinformation, distrust, and other societal and person-level factors. In addition, there are now ongoing policy debates aimed at reducing the childhood vaccine schedule.